Modeling Gastric Cancer Into The 21st Century
Published in Stanford Health Policy, 2020
In this talk, I presented the health burden of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and gastric cancer in Mexico. I presented the estimation of the force of infection of H. pylori in Mexico using data from a seroprevalence survey conducted in the country in 1988-89 with a Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear model. I described the construction and validation of an age-structured transmission model of H. pylori accounting for antibiotic resistance, and its expansion to account for gastric disease dynamics. I showed how this model can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different screen-and-treat strategies for H. pylori to decrease gastric cancer mortality at a population level.